What i Like- Good data pull, the historical comparison is genuinely useful context. Few people are actually putting numbers behind the "SaaS is getting crushed" narrative, so credit for that.
Where I think this could go deeper- the 2016 and 2022 recoveries happened in fundamentally different macro regimes. Rate panics are cyclical, AI displacement might be structural. The real question this data raises but doesn't answer is: which of these companies are being repriced because of market-wide panic (and will bounce back), vs. which are being repriced because AI agents are genuinely commoditizing their product?
ServiceNow and CrowdStrike probably have very different moat stories than Twilio or HubSpot right now. A V2 that segments the basket into "structurally threatened" vs. "caught in the crossfire" would be genuinely differentiated - I haven't seen anyone do that analysis well yet.
Also worth flagging: the reconstituted basket makes year-over-year comparisons tricky since you're comparing different companies each time. Might be worth running a fixed cohort alongside it as a sanity check.
Thanks for sharing this — it’s interesting to see how broadly the sell-off hit many leading SaaS names at the same time.
Beyond the multiple compression you pointed out, I recently looked at Salesforce from a fundamentals angle and noticed a transition toward a more mature profile: slower growth, but strengthening margins, cash flow, and balance sheet quality. That’s often a phase where the market penalizes the stock while the underlying business actually becomes more robust.
I’d be curious whether a similar shift can be observed across some of the other SaaS companies you mentioned.
What i Like- Good data pull, the historical comparison is genuinely useful context. Few people are actually putting numbers behind the "SaaS is getting crushed" narrative, so credit for that.
Where I think this could go deeper- the 2016 and 2022 recoveries happened in fundamentally different macro regimes. Rate panics are cyclical, AI displacement might be structural. The real question this data raises but doesn't answer is: which of these companies are being repriced because of market-wide panic (and will bounce back), vs. which are being repriced because AI agents are genuinely commoditizing their product?
ServiceNow and CrowdStrike probably have very different moat stories than Twilio or HubSpot right now. A V2 that segments the basket into "structurally threatened" vs. "caught in the crossfire" would be genuinely differentiated - I haven't seen anyone do that analysis well yet.
Also worth flagging: the reconstituted basket makes year-over-year comparisons tricky since you're comparing different companies each time. Might be worth running a fixed cohort alongside it as a sanity check.
Would read the follow-up.
Very well researched and brought out !
Thanks for sharing this — it’s interesting to see how broadly the sell-off hit many leading SaaS names at the same time.
Beyond the multiple compression you pointed out, I recently looked at Salesforce from a fundamentals angle and noticed a transition toward a more mature profile: slower growth, but strengthening margins, cash flow, and balance sheet quality. That’s often a phase where the market penalizes the stock while the underlying business actually becomes more robust.
I’d be curious whether a similar shift can be observed across some of the other SaaS companies you mentioned.